With all the attention paid to crime in large coastal cities such as Los Angeles, New York, and Seattle, you would think that they were also the most dangerous. However, on a per capita basis, you are much more likely to be murdered if you live in many of the counties located in “flyover country.” The following list represents the average annual homicide rate per capita (standardized by 100,000 population) from 2020 to 2023.[1]
For a point of comparison, there were 7.3 homicides per 100,000 residents in the United States during this time. Los Angeles County had 7.2, New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York and Queens Counties) had 5.3, and Seattle (King County) had 5.2 per 100,000. The counties on this list have anywhere between five and 10 times more homicides per capita.
One caveat is that the small populations of rural counties allows for only a few homicides to significantly impact the homicide rate. The precise rural counties that top this list during this four year span will likely change; but it is likely that they will be replaced by other counties located in the deep South.
1) Leflore County, Mississippi.
Homicide Rate: 74.8 per 100,000
Averages 20.25 homicides per year (81 total)
Population in 2022: 26,570
Poverty Rate: 28.8%
While Leflore is not usually the location we associate with being the nation’s “murder capital,” it has long had a violent history. Not only was it the county in which Emmett Till was abducted prior to his murder in 1955, but also had one of the highest rates of lynchings from 1880 to 1940 (ranked 11th per capita nationally).[2]
Today, Leflore is a county with a rapidly declining population, with roughly half as many residents as in 1950. Leflore is also a very poor county, with a poverty rate above 25%.
2) Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota. (Formerly, Shannon County)
Homicide Rate: 69.6 per 100,000
Averages 9.5 homicides per year (38 total)
Population in 2022: 13,519
Poverty Rate: 37.1%
While South Dakota is a state with a relatively low rate of homicide, one of its counties secured the second highest spot on the list of the most homicidal.
Unlike many of the counties on this list, the population in Oglala Lakota County had been growing until stagnating since 2010. Like many of the counties on this list, it has an extremely high rate of poverty, with more than a third of its residents living below the poverty line.
Oglala Lakota County was the site of the Wounded Knee Massacre in which hundreds of Lakota were killed by American soldiers in 1890.
3) Phillips County, Arkansas.
Homicide Rate: 64.6 per 100,000
Averages 10.25 homicides per year (41 total)
Population in 2022: 15,304
Poverty Rate: 34.2%
Phillips County also has had a violent history. Not only was it the location of a deadly race massacre in 1919,[3] but also had the highest number of documented lynchings between 1880 and 1940.[4]
Similar to Leflore County, Phillips has experienced steep population decline since the 1950s. More than a third of Phillips County residents live below the poverty line.
Positioned along the Mississippi River, Phillips is geographically close (and demographically similar) to the Mississippi counties in the top five of this list.
4) Washington County, Mississippi.
Homicide Rate: 62.6 per 100,000
Averages 26.75 homicides per year (107 total)
Population in 2022: 42,514
Poverty Rate: 35.5%
Located only a few hours away from Phillips County and less than an hours from Leflore County, Washington County has many of the same demographic and economic characteristics: steep declines in population and more than a third of its residents living below the poverty line. While it has a larger population than the previous counties on the list, it is still a relatively rural county.
The town of Greenville is the current county seat, with a population of less than 30,000. However, news reports point to shootings, stabbings, and homicides at a pace more typical of a city with hundreds of thousands of residents.
5) Holmes County, Mississippi.
Homicide Rate: 58.4 per 100,000
Averages 9.5 homicides per year (38 total)
Population in 2022: 16,121
Poverty Rate: 35.6%
Just a county over from Washington, Holmes County is similar to the other rural Southern counties on this list; it has experienced a sharp population decline in recent decades and has a high rate of poverty. Because Mississippi was the site of much of the racial violence during the Jim Crow era, some of the historical population decline appears to be due to the second ‘Great Migration’ from the 1940s through the 1970s. But, like other counties in this list, the population decline continued into the 21st Century.
6) Hinds County, Mississippi.
Homicide Rate: 54.6 per 100,000
Averages 120.5 homicides per year (482 total)
Population in 2022: 217,730
Poverty Rate: 21%
The first “urban” county on the list, Hinds County is home to the city of Jackson, Mississippi. Unlike the rural counties that rank above it, the high murder rate in Hinds County has not escaped public attention. There has been considerably controversy in recent years, as the state of Mississippi has used the pretext of high rates of crime to take some of the Jackson city police department’s jurisdiction away to promote the safety of the state capitol.[5]
7) St. Louis City, Missouri.
Homicide Rate: 52.7 per 100,000
Averages 152.75 homicides per year (611 total)
Population in 2022: 286,578
Poverty Rate: 19.8%
Yes, St. Louis is a city, but it is also classified as a separate entity from the neighboring St. Louis County. A city that has long had an issue with violent crime, St. Louis is the second most populous county on this list. The homicide rate in St. Louis spiked during the pandemic and has remained elevated in the years since.
Proportionally, no other county on this list has experienced a population decline as steep as St. Louis, from more than 850,000 residents in the 1950s to less than 300,000 today. Poverty rates in the city are above the national average, but the lowest on this list so far.
8) Dallas County, Alabama.
Homicide Rate: 52.5 per 100,000
Averages 19.25 homicides per year (77 total)
Population in 2022: 36,767
Poverty Rate: 31.4%
The site of “Bloody Sunday” in Selma, Dallas County has many of the same historical atrocities, racial repression, and violence of other rural Southern counties on this list. Also, like these rural counties, declines in population and high rates of poverty continue to impact the high rate of violent crime in this county.
9) Wilcox County, Alabama.
Homicide Rate: 51.7 per 100,000
Averages 5.25 homicides per year (21 total)
Population in 2022: 10,059
Poverty Rate: 32.7%
Wilcox County is the least populous county in the top ten, averaging only 5.25 homicides per year from 2020 and 2023. However, with only about 10,000 residents, this still brings the homicide rate to several orders of magnitude higher than New York City or Los Angeles.
Wilcox borders Dallas County, which is reflected in their similar demographic, economic, and violence characteristics.
10) Orleans Parish, Louisiana.
Homicide Rate: 50.1 per 100,000
Averages 188 homicides per year (752 total)
Population in 2022: 369,749
Poverty Rate: 23.1%
Orleans Parish, the location of the city of New Orleans, has long had issues related to high rates of violent crime. Although Orleans Parish still lands at tenth on this list, this is an improvement from previous eras in which Orleans was the undisputed murder capital, such as during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
[1] The CDC Wonder database was used to compile this list. Homicides represent all deaths by assault (codes x85-y09), regardless of intention or criminal determination.
[2] https://lynchinginamerica.eji.org/report/
[3] https://archive.org/details/TheArkansasRaceRiot/page/n3/mode/2up
[4] https://lynchinginamerica.eji.org/report/
[5] https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/local/2024/05/09/jpd-capitol-police-chiefs-assure-collaboration-with-ccid-expansion/73629671007/