Lead was my thought, too. Researchers uncovered a direct link to ADHD, mental health impacts, IQ decline, and violence, and children bore the worst of it, but we'll never know the total number of people affected by lead.
Undoubtedly, crime rates are caused by numerous factors, but we can't ignore lead poisoning, which US corporations knowingly caused.
I don’t understand “firearm availability” as an explanatory factor. Firearm availability did go up through that period, but it has never declined. If anything, firearm availability is higher now than it has ever been.
You take a global trend about youths (less socializing, partying, sex) and assume it also applies to the much smaller cohort of violent criminals.
I’m not saying your assumption is wrong, but do you see it as a concern? Are you confident the cohort of criminals directionally matches the general cohort of youths? Are youths committing the majority of theft and violent crime?
In eras past, lots of normal, otherwise well-adjusted kids committed property crimes in groups. These “adolescent-limited” offenders have seemingly disappeared at the same time that kids are spending more time alone. The more troubled youth are still offending. This is partially why youth involvement in murder has not declined as much.
Fascinating. Boomer here, and I can’t help but notice my young adult years coinciding with peak crime in the US, which feels about right. Not data driven, but I cannot help the feeling that my gen was more adventurous than current gens. Not because we were better, but because the world was “out there” and if you wanted a piece of it, you had to go find it. Now devices/interwebs provide the illusion of access to the world without the expense/trouble/risk of actually going there?
Absolutely. During their peak in the late 1960s/early 1970s, Boomer teenagers (15-19) accounted for nearly half of all burglary arrests and almost two-thirds of motor vehicle thefts. By 2023, Gen Z 15 to 19 year olds only accounted for only about 12% of burglary arrests and 24% of motor vehicle thefts. By this metric alone, teen offending is down by almost two-thirds.
I cannot find information detailing NIBRS reporting rates. UCR reporting was hampered by the recent trend in reducing active police in many communities, some cities simply not reporting at all, and other confounders resulting in poor data.
How concerned are you that statistical GIGO is leading to an inaccurate understanding of true crime rates?
cheers. thanks for the youth cohort falling criminality point. but is there any effect from falling relative populations of youth, full stop? median age is rising and people live longer and have less kids. and we know impulsive criminality burns out by the 50s.
Probably some. The percentage of youth in peak offending age (15-24) has fallen by nearly 7% over the past 20 years. But, I tend to think that the change in youth cohort behavior is a bit more impactful. The most extreme version of this is for burglary arrest rates; arrest rates of 18-year-olds dropped by 75% from 2000 to 2019.
Lead was a major contributor
How Lead Caused America's Violent Crime Epidemic https://share.google/PqYQNmtkFx6EFenqT
Not as much as you think: https://crimeforecast.substack.com/p/the-exaggerated-leadcrime-hypothesis?r=4v7etj
Lead was my thought, too. Researchers uncovered a direct link to ADHD, mental health impacts, IQ decline, and violence, and children bore the worst of it, but we'll never know the total number of people affected by lead.
Undoubtedly, crime rates are caused by numerous factors, but we can't ignore lead poisoning, which US corporations knowingly caused.
Lead poisoning has barely declined over the past decade. ADHD symptoms are near all time highs. And again, the association is s not as strong as people have been lead to believe: https://open.substack.com/pub/crimeforecast/p/the-exaggerated-leadcrime-hypothesis?r=4v7etj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
It appears the big decline began about 18 years after Roe v Wade. Maybe a connection?
I don’t understand “firearm availability” as an explanatory factor. Firearm availability did go up through that period, but it has never declined. If anything, firearm availability is higher now than it has ever been.
You take a global trend about youths (less socializing, partying, sex) and assume it also applies to the much smaller cohort of violent criminals.
I’m not saying your assumption is wrong, but do you see it as a concern? Are you confident the cohort of criminals directionally matches the general cohort of youths? Are youths committing the majority of theft and violent crime?
In eras past, lots of normal, otherwise well-adjusted kids committed property crimes in groups. These “adolescent-limited” offenders have seemingly disappeared at the same time that kids are spending more time alone. The more troubled youth are still offending. This is partially why youth involvement in murder has not declined as much.
Fascinating. Boomer here, and I can’t help but notice my young adult years coinciding with peak crime in the US, which feels about right. Not data driven, but I cannot help the feeling that my gen was more adventurous than current gens. Not because we were better, but because the world was “out there” and if you wanted a piece of it, you had to go find it. Now devices/interwebs provide the illusion of access to the world without the expense/trouble/risk of actually going there?
Absolutely. During their peak in the late 1960s/early 1970s, Boomer teenagers (15-19) accounted for nearly half of all burglary arrests and almost two-thirds of motor vehicle thefts. By 2023, Gen Z 15 to 19 year olds only accounted for only about 12% of burglary arrests and 24% of motor vehicle thefts. By this metric alone, teen offending is down by almost two-thirds.
I cannot find information detailing NIBRS reporting rates. UCR reporting was hampered by the recent trend in reducing active police in many communities, some cities simply not reporting at all, and other confounders resulting in poor data.
How concerned are you that statistical GIGO is leading to an inaccurate understanding of true crime rates?
cheers. thanks for the youth cohort falling criminality point. but is there any effect from falling relative populations of youth, full stop? median age is rising and people live longer and have less kids. and we know impulsive criminality burns out by the 50s.
Probably some. The percentage of youth in peak offending age (15-24) has fallen by nearly 7% over the past 20 years. But, I tend to think that the change in youth cohort behavior is a bit more impactful. The most extreme version of this is for burglary arrest rates; arrest rates of 18-year-olds dropped by 75% from 2000 to 2019.